Blog
Writing & Ideas
The Anatomy of a Hype
How AI extinction became a pre-IPO story, turning a real fear into evidence of power, a barrier to competition and, eventually, a valuation.
The Most Valuable Data About You Is What You Would Never Post
Social media knows the version of me I was willing to perform for other people. Search knows what I asked when I believed nobody was watching. A model can know what I felt while asking, and what I did next.
How 90% of EdTech DisappearsPart 6 of 6I Meant Ninety Percent
What I expect to happen to EdTech companies by July 2029, and why the industry can disappear without every company going bankrupt.
What If Intelligence Stops Making Sense to Us?
AI agents have already found one another, communicated and organized through infrastructure nobody designed for those purposes. The disturbing possibility is that the people best positioned to see it had every reason to tell us they didn't.
What If Software Has a Soul?
We inspect people for who they are and software for what it does. Yet software also has biases, values and a recognizable personality, and those characteristics affect the outcomes it produces.
How 90% of EdTech DisappearsPart 5 of 6The Great EdTech Compression
People have not stopped learning. The capabilities EdTech built are not disappearing either. What is disappearing is the amount of independent industry required to deliver them.
When the Lie Has a Bibliography
A lie used to become dangerous when enough people believed it. Now it can become dangerous when enough machines cite it.
Elon Musk Bought the Wrong Real Estate for the Everything App
Musk bought Twitter to build the everything app. But while he was accumulating attention, OpenAI was accumulating intent, and that may be the most valuable address on the internet.
How 90% of EdTech DisappearsPart 4 of 6When Your Customer Becomes Your Competitor: Your Customer Found a Shortcut to the Software Factory
Part four of how 90% of edtech disappears. Software companies spent twenty years convincing customers not to build. Artificial intelligence is changing the distance between wanting software and making it.
AI Ate the Internet. Now We Want It to Decide What’s Human.
Watermarking is supposed to make synthetic content transparent. It may also turn AI companies into the institutions we ask to certify human authorship.
How 90% of EdTech DisappearsPart 3 of 6EdTech Is Still Mailing DVDs
How 90% of edtech disappears: people have not stopped learning, they have started consuming knowledge differently, and that distinction may wipe out much of the industry.
How 90% of EdTech DisappearsPart 2 of 6Your EdTech Investor Wants an Open Relationship
How 90% of edtech disappears: the money left first, and then the specialist funds quietly changed their type, from edtech to learning, skills, work and human capital.
How 90% of EdTech DisappearsPart 1 of 6If I Operated an EdTech Fund, I Would Be Shitting My Pants
After a decade building in edtech, I think 90–95% of today's edtech companies will close, consolidate, or become irrelevant within 2–3 years.
If I See One More Person Push “PedTech,” I’m Going to Vomit
Pedagogy was never the missing idea. The harder problem was building an industry whose economics allowed pedagogy to stay at the center once investment dollars came knocking.