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What the 6 Ds of Exponential Technology Don't Show: Why Industries Facing AI Trust the Wrong Numbers
Peter Diamandis's 6 Ds explain how technology grows. Drawing on 30 industries, from radio to taxis, this essay shows why incumbents trust the wrong numbers.
Nobody Canceled the Iceman
Industries rarely disappear because a better rival wins or everyone goes bankrupt. They disappear through what I call the Five Cs of disappearance: Capital, Compression, Container, Customer and Category. Most industries meet more than one, few meet all five, and the last is the hardest to see.
The Anatomy of a Hype
How AI extinction became a pre-IPO story, turning a real fear into evidence of power, a barrier to competition and, eventually, a valuation.
How 90% of EdTech DisappearsPart 6 of 6I Meant Ninety Percent
What I expect to happen to EdTech companies by July 2029, and why the industry can disappear without every company going bankrupt.
How 90% of EdTech DisappearsPart 5 of 6The Great EdTech Compression
People have not stopped learning. The capabilities EdTech built are not disappearing either. What is disappearing is the amount of independent industry required to deliver them.
How 90% of EdTech DisappearsPart 4 of 6When Your Customer Becomes Your Competitor: Your Customer Found a Shortcut to the Software Factory
Part four of how 90% of edtech disappears. Software companies spent twenty years convincing customers not to build. Artificial intelligence is changing the distance between wanting software and making it.
How 90% of EdTech DisappearsPart 3 of 6EdTech Is Still Mailing DVDs
How 90% of edtech disappears: people have not stopped learning, they have started consuming knowledge differently, and that distinction may wipe out much of the industry.
How 90% of EdTech DisappearsPart 2 of 6Your EdTech Investor Wants an Open Relationship
How 90% of edtech disappears: the money left first, and then the specialist funds quietly changed their type, from edtech to learning, skills, work and human capital.
How 90% of EdTech DisappearsPart 1 of 6If I Operated an EdTech Fund, I Would Be Shitting My Pants
After a decade building in edtech, I think 90–95% of today's edtech companies will close, consolidate, or become irrelevant within 2–3 years.