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Writing & Ideas
What the 6 Ds of Exponential Technology Don't Show: Why Industries Facing AI Trust the Wrong Numbers
Peter Diamandis's 6 Ds explain how technology grows. Drawing on 30 industries, from radio to taxis, this essay shows why incumbents trust the wrong numbers.
Nobody Canceled the Iceman
Industries rarely disappear because a better rival wins or everyone goes bankrupt. They disappear through what I call the Five Cs of disappearance: Capital, Compression, Container, Customer and Category. Most industries meet more than one, few meet all five, and the last is the hardest to see.
The iPhone Killed the Calculator. Now the LLM Is Coming for Your Software Company.
When the iPhone arrived, it did not have to be a better calculator, camera or map to stop people from buying those things. The LLM is about to do the same to software.
How 90% of EdTech DisappearsPart 4 of 6When Your Customer Becomes Your Competitor: Your Customer Found a Shortcut to the Software Factory
Part four of how 90% of edtech disappears. Software companies spent twenty years convincing customers not to build. Artificial intelligence is changing the distance between wanting software and making it.
How 90% of EdTech DisappearsPart 1 of 6If I Operated an EdTech Fund, I Would Be Shitting My Pants
After a decade building in edtech, I think 90–95% of today's edtech companies will close, consolidate, or become irrelevant within 2–3 years.
If I See One More Person Push “PedTech,” I’m Going to Vomit
Pedagogy was never the missing idea. The harder problem was building an industry whose economics allowed pedagogy to stay at the center once investment dollars came knocking.